Monty+Hall


 * Computational Thinking – Monty Hall Problem **


 * Activity Outline: **
 * 1) Introduce the Monty Hall Problem
 * 2) Have students play with the simulation
 * 3) Have students try to come up with a solution to the problem, using a tree diagram
 * 4) Explain how the simulation works

Use [] as guide. Be sure to highlight the fact that the host knows what each door contains: the host will never accidentally reveal the car.
 * Problem **

Have students discuss what they think the probability is going to be of winning if they always switch, or if they always keep the original answer. Likely will say 1/3 chance of winning, always.

Simulation located at []
 * Simulation **

Guide students in explaining what the simulation is doing: black turtles always switch, white turtles never switch, and if they win a round, they move forward. Otherwise they stay put. Many turtles play many rounds of the game. //Note: Be sure to explain what the simulation is doing during each step, not just overall.//

Have students interpret outcome: black turtles generally do better than white ones. Have students explain what their original (1/3 chance of winning always) hypothesis would look like in the simulation.

Have the students draw a tree diagram (see the Wikipedia page). You will likely have to guide them through this. Have the students discuss what this tree diagram means. Have students make a new hypothesis based off of the probabilities contained within the tree diagram.
 * Tree Diagram **